The race is now run, the results are in. But in the lead up to the race a number of influential and key people made their predictions. As I start to write this Sam Laidlow is comfortably in the lead and Patrick Lange is about to run into second place. I’ll cover the within this article but here is a summary of who thought what would happen and how the race would/could unfold.
With the World Champs in Nice, on what is a technical and challenging bike course, Nice is going to suit a different style of athlete than who we typically see winning the Ironman World Champs (Kona or St George).
I made the prediction on my social media that I thought Jan Frodeno will win, Patrick Lange for second place (which is the position he has just ran into – assuming he can hold it) and Braden Currie for third.
Thorsten Radde’s Predictions
Thorsten Radde has to be the most analytical and well known forecaster of Ironman results. His TriRating.com is well known for analysing race results and making predictions for full-distance races. Check out his Nice 2023 Rating Report. He also wrote for Triathlete.com
Two articles he wrote are: 2023 Nice Ironman World Championships: The Men’s Contenders and Ironman Men’s World Championships Nice 2023: A Play-By-Play Preview.
Thorsten predicted that the race would be won by Jan Frodeno in 8:03:53, Magnus Ditlev for second in a close fought race only 6 seconds behind, with Patrick Lange for third 1:32 behind Jan. Thorsten goes to a lot of detail with his predictions due to some in depth analysis.
- Jan Frodeno – 20% chance of winning – 35% chance of being on the podium
- Magnus Ditlev – 20% chance of winning – 35% chance of being on the podium (Result: 3rd place)
- Patrick Lange – 15% chance of winning – 30% chance of being on the podium (Result: 2nd place)
- Sam Laidlow – 10% chance of winning – 20% chance of being on the podium (Result: WINNER)
Of the top 10 athletes, this is what Thorsten predicted for them:
- 1st – Sam Laidlow – 8:06:22 (47:50 / 4:31:28 / 2:41:46) | Prediction: 8:12:33 (46:15 / 4:32:44 / 2:48:34) for 11th place 10% chance of winning; 20% chance of podium
- 2nd – Patrick Lange – 8:10:17 (49:01 / 4:43:24 / 2:32:41) | Prediction: 8:05:25 (46:28 / 4:42:59 / 2:30:57) for 3rd place 15% chance of winning; 35% chance of podium
- 3rd – Magnus Ditlev – 8:11:43 (49:14 / 4:35:54 / 2:41:07) | Prediction: 8:03:59 (47:13 / 4:32:59 / 2:38:47) for 2nd place 20% chance of winning; 30% chance of podium
- 4th – Rudy von Berg – 8:12:57 (47:50 / 4:37:23 / 2:42:44) | Prediction: 8:11:49 (46:07 / 4:37:24 / 2:43:18) for 8th place 10% chance of podium; 20% chance of Top 10
- 5th – Leon Chevalier – 8:15:07 (51:11 / 4:39:30 / 2:39:26) | Prediction: 8:13:01 (45:54 / 4:43:09 / 2:40:28) for 13th place 5% chance of podium; 40% chance of Top 10
- 6th – Arthur Horseau – 8:18:36 (53:19 / 4:42:19 / 2:37:17) | Prediction: 8:11:13 (49:14 / 4:39:40 / 2:38:47) for 7th place 25% chance of Top 10
- 7th – Bradley Weiss – 8:20:54 (47:55 / 4:44:23 / 2:43:22) | Prediction: 8:20:07 (47:37 / 4:46:24 / 2:41:06) for 21st 10% chance of Top 10
- 8th – Gregory Barnaby – 8:21:15 (47:51 / 4:44:23 / 2:44:04) | Prediction: 8:15:00 (46:02 / 4:45:53 / 2:38:05) for 15th place 10% chance of Top 10
- 9th – Robert Wilkowiecki – 8:21:23 (47:48 / 4:44:36 / 2:43:45) | Prediction: 8:17:06 (46:12 / 4:43:36 / 2:42:19) for 16th 15% chance of Top 10
- 10th – Clement Mignon – 8:24:10 (47:59 / 4:43:03 / 2:47:55) | Prediction: 8:12:41 (47:41 / 4:39:20 / 2:40:41) for 12th place 2% chance of podium; 60% chance of Top 10
Thorsten gave the three athletes on the podium a good chance of finishing on the podium and everyone in the Top 10 he also gave them a reasonable chance of being in the Top 10. From the Top 10 Thorsten correctly predicted 16 times reasonably accurately (finish times within 5 minutes, swim times within a minute or a two minute margin of error for a bike or run time).
Mark Allen’s Predictions
In Mark Allen’s article for Tri247 he makes a number of observations about how he believes key athletes will (or won’t go).
Although he has a soft spot he is realistic in his expectations of Jan Frodeno’s chances and implies that Jan isn’t suited to this course and is more suited for Kona. This course is more suited to someone like Patrick Lange who is light and can climb, and then follow it up with a 2:30 marathon. Mark then talks about the French athletes: when it comes to Sam Laidlow, he asks the question “Have you just been sort of saving up for Nice or what?”
He further expands that “I think there’s just too many question marks so I don’t see him pulling off the kind of race he had in Kona on this course, especially with the year that he’s had.” Sam certainly let his performance speak volumes.
When it came time to discuss the Great Dane or the little short fella Magnus Ditlev (who is 195cm or 6’4″): “If he has recovered from Roth, which he wasn’t earlier, clearly he has to be somebody that you put as a very strong favourite.”
Greg Welch’s Predictions
Greg Welch had his predictions published on a podcast on Canadian Triathlon Magazine and called Marcus Ditlev, Patrick Langer and Jan Frodeno as his top 3, with Braden Currie and the ‘Frenchies‘ as outside chances: Sam Laidlow, Denis Chevrot, Leon Chevalier & Clement Mignon.
The finishing positions of the atheltes Greg rated were:
- Marcus Ditlev – Finished 3rd
- Patrick Langer – Finished 2nd
- Jan Frodeno – Finished 24th
- Braden Currie – Finished 16th
- Sam Laidlow – Finished 1st
- Denis Chevrot – DNF
- Leon Chevalier – Finished 5th
- Clement Mignon – Finished 10th
Greg also predicted a 46-47min swim, with a 4:30 bike with a 2:35-2:36 marathon.
Kevin Mackinnon who is interviewing Greg Welch rates Braden higher, Braden went on to finish 16th.
Kristian Blummenfelt’s Predictions
In an article for 220 Triathlon; Kristian Blummenfelt predicted that Cam Wurf should be on the podium (he finished 14th).
Although not rating Jan Frodeno’s chances he thought that Patrick Lange would have a strong chance of success. He ended up finishing 2nd.
You can read his article here.
Global Triathlon Networks Predictions
Max Neumann went on record on the GTN Show, claiming even favourites of Jan Frodeno (ended up finishing 24th) and Patrick Lange (ended up finishing 2nd).
John Levison’s Predictions
Also writing for Tri247, John Levison predictions aren’t as detailed as Mark Allen’s:
John discusses a number of key athletes before going on record with predicting:
- Jan Frodeno (GER) – Finished 24th
- Magnus Ditlev (DEN) – Finished 3rd
- Braden Currie (NZL) – Finished 16th
- Patrick Lange (GER) – Finished 2nd
- Joe Skipper (GBR) – Finished 30th
- Leon Chevalier (FRA) – Finished 5th
Ryan Heisler from SlowTwitch.com‘s Predictions
Ryan Heisler Editor-in-Chief for Slow Twitch, made his predictions in his article 2023 Men’s IM World Championships Pro Picks.
Favourites:
- Jan Frodeno – Finished 24th
- Magnus Ditlev – Finished 3rd
- Sam Laidlow – Finished 1st
- Rudy Von Berg – Finished 4th
- Joe Skipper – Finished 30th
The main prediction in his article is about Sam Laidlow “The combination of home country and course may just be enough to see him take the top step.”
Dark Horses:
- Patrick Lange – Finished 2nd
- Leon Chevalier – Finished 5th
- Clement Mignon – Finished 10th
- Denis Chevrot – DNF
- Cam Wurf – Finished 14th
Triathlon with Coach John’s Predictions
Discussing the PTO’s rankings Coach John puts his predictions for the Ironman World Champs out there in his video:
- 1st – Magnus Ditlev – Finished 3rd
- 2nd – Jan Frodeno – Finished 24th
- 3rd – Joe Skipper – Finished 30th
- 4th – Some Young Gun – Maybe he is referring to Leon Chevalier who is 26 years old and finished 5th
- 5th – Kristian Blummenfelt – Withdrew in the lead up to the race*
- 6th – Sam Laidlow – Finished 1st
- 7th – Cam Wurf – Finished 14th
- 8th – Pieter Heemeryck – DNF
- 9th – Gustov Iden – Withdrew in the lead up to the race*
- 10th – Daniel Baekkegard – DNS
- 11th -Some Young Gun #2 – Maybe he is referring to Clement Mignon who is 24 years old and finished 10th
- 12th – Patrick Lange – Finished 2nd
- 13th – Denis Chevrot – DNF
- 14th – Bradley Wiess – Finished 7th
* At the time of recording a couple of key withdrawals clearly hadn’t yet happened.
As you can see picking a winner is never an easy proposition. A few things played against some of the key players and wild card chances, no one got it perfect but Ryan Heisler had some prophetic lines about Sam Laidlow.